ABSTRACT
Case identification is an ongoing issue for the COVID-19 epidemic, in particular for outpatient care where physicians must decide which patients to prioritise for further testing. This paper reports tools to classify patients based on symptom profiles based on 236 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 positive cases and 564 controls, accounting for the time course of illness using generalised multivariate logistic regression. Significant symptoms included abdominal pain, cough, diarrhoea, fever, headache, muscle ache, runny nose, sore throat, temperature between 37.5 and 37.9 °C and temperature above 38 °C, but their importance varied by day of illness at assessment. With a high percentile threshold for specificity at 0.95, the baseline model had reasonable sensitivity at 0.67. To further evaluate accuracy of model predictions, leave-one-out cross-validation confirmed high classification accuracy with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.92. For the baseline model, sensitivity decreased to 0.56. External validation datasets reported similar result. Our study provides a tool to discern COVID-19 patients from controls using symptoms and day from illness onset with good predictive performance. It could be considered as a framework to complement laboratory testing in order to differentiate COVID-19 from other patients presenting with acute symptoms in outpatient care.
Subject(s)
Ambulatory Care , COVID-19 Testing/methods , COVID-19/diagnosis , Abdominal Pain/physiopathology , Adolescent , Adult , COVID-19/physiopathology , Case-Control Studies , Clinical Decision Rules , Cough/physiopathology , Diarrhea/physiopathology , Disease Progression , Dyspnea/physiopathology , Female , Fever/physiopathology , Headache/physiopathology , Humans , Logistic Models , Male , Middle Aged , Multivariate Analysis , Myalgia/physiopathology , Odds Ratio , Patient Selection , Pharyngitis/physiopathology , Rhinorrhea/physiopathology , SARS-CoV-2 , Sensitivity and Specificity , Severity of Illness Index , Young AdultABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Primary care physicians (PCPs) are first points-of-contact between suspected cases and the healthcare system in the current COVID-19 pandemic. This study examines PCPs' concerns, impact on personal lives and work, and level of pandemic preparedness in the context of COVID-19 in Singapore. We also examine factors and coping strategies that PCPs have used to manage stress during the outbreak. METHODS: Two hundred and sixteen PCPs actively practicing in either a public or private clinic were cluster sampled via email invitation from three primary care organizations in Singapore from 6th to 29th March 2020. Participants completed a cross-sectional online questionnaire consisting of items on work- and non-work-related concerns, impact on personal and work life, perceived pandemic preparedness, stress-reduction factors, and personal coping strategies related to COVID-19. RESULTS: A total of 158 questionnaires were usable for analyses. PCPs perceived themselves to be at high risk of COVID-19 infection (89.9%), and a source of risk (74.7%) and concern (71.5%) to loved ones. PCPs reported acceptance of these risks (91.1%) and the need to care for COVID-19 patients (85.4%). Overall perceived pandemic preparedness was extremely high (75.9 to 89.9%). PCPs prioritized availability of personal protective equipment, strict infection prevention guidelines, accessible information about COVID-19, and well-being of their colleagues and family as the most effective stress management factors. CONCLUSIONS: PCPs continue to serve willingly on the frontlines of this pandemic despite the high perception of risk to themselves and loved ones. Healthcare organizations should continue to support PCPs by managing both their psychosocial (e.g. stress management) and professional (e.g. pandemic preparedness) needs.
Subject(s)
Attitude of Health Personnel , COVID-19/therapy , Physicians, Primary Care/organization & administration , Primary Health Care/organization & administration , Ambulatory Care Facilities/organization & administration , COVID-19/prevention & control , Cross-Sectional Studies , Disease Outbreaks/prevention & control , Humans , Infectious Disease Transmission, Patient-to-Professional/prevention & control , SingaporeABSTRACT
PURPOSE: Primary care physicians (PCP) are at a high risk of contracting COVID-19 as they manage patients with fever or respiratory symptoms, but it is intuitive that private and public practice PCPs may face different challenges during this pandemic. This study compared work- and non-work-related concerns, COVID-19's impact on personal and professional lives, and perceived pandemic preparedness between private and public PCPs in Singapore. METHODS: 216 PCPs who were a registered member of either the National University Polyclinics, National University Health System Primary Care Network or College of Family Physicians Singapore, participated in this online cross-sectional study. The data collection period lasted from 6th March 2020 to 29th March 2020. RESULTS: A final sample of 172 questionnaires were analysed. Private PCPs tended to be older and more experienced. Perceived COVID-19 exposure and overall preparedness was high in both groups. More private PCPs perceived their exposure risk as unacceptable, aOR = 3.96 (1.07, 14.62); that they should not be caring for COVID-19 patients, aOR = 3.55 (1.23, 10.24); and perceived more stigma against their loved ones, aOR = 4.27 (1.74, 10.44). Private PCPs felt less well-trained, aOR = 0.05 (0.01, 0.23); and supported, aOR = 0.14 (0.03, 0.63). CONCLUSIONS: Private PCPs are more likely to be self-employed or work in smaller practices where COVID-19 infection could mean loss of livelihood. As a healthcare system without primary care is crippled in its ability to manage outbreaks, authorities should respond appropriately to the needs of their general practitioners and family physicians.